AIReF confirms that the pension reform does not guarantee sustainability

The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) maintains that the approved pension reform does not guarantee long-term financial viability. The system survives now, but the future is uncertain and the economic situation is becoming more complicated.

The new AIReF report, presented on May 30, 2026, updates forecasts for the 2022-2050 period and confirms that the deficit and public debt will increase due to the impact of an aging population and insufficient measures.

Formal compliance with the spending rule but with red flags

The spending rule and the percentage of GDP

The report points out that net pension spending is set at an average of 13% of GDP between 2022 and 2050, slightly below the 13.3% limit established by the regulation. This figure improves compared to the previous year, when 13.2% was forecast, thanks to an expected increase in revenues, especially from self-employed contributions.

Improvements in revenues but without guaranteeing sustainability

The upward revision of revenues reaches up to 1.6% of GDP, with notable contributions such as 0.4 points from the Intergenerational Equity Mechanism and 0.3 points from the reform of self-employed contributions. But just because this is the case does not mean the treasury will withstand what is coming. AIReF insists that these measures are insufficient to guarantee the system’s sustainability.

Uncontrolled increase of public debt and growing transfers

Debt will rise up to 123% of GDP

The main problem is that, despite complying with the rule, the system generates serious financial pressures. Public debt will soar and could reach 123% of GDP by 2050 if there are no changes in current policies. The aging of the population will be a relentless driver of this increase.

Transfers and deficit: a ticking time bomb

The report stresses that transfers from the central Government and Social Security will have to increase by 2.3 more points, up to 3% of GDP, to cope with the spending increase. This will mean cuts in other policies or more debt, incompatible with European and national fiscal frameworks.

Criticism of the current design and proposals for revision

Partial view of the spending rule

AIReF denounces that the current rule is based on an incomplete view, limited to pension spending as a percentage of GDP, and does not properly incorporate revenue measures. This causes a mistaken perception of the real situation and a hidden risk.

The need to revise the rule

Moreover, linking to European aging forecasts means the rule cannot adapt to more recent data and does not fit the new European fiscal framework. For this reason, AIReF proposes that the spending rule be revised to make it more precise and realistic.

The reality is that the current pension reform is a patch that will cover holes but will not prevent the debt and spending bomb from exploding later.